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Depreciating is the rational regression of real estate

From;    Author:Stand originally

Current, the commodity house price of 5 annulus less than of Beijing is in 10 thousand yuan basically / square metre above. Calculate accordingly, house price reachs a household year 12 times of income. Otherwise of a family eats not to drink 12 years to just can buy one flatlet.

Unilateral imposes stamp duty policy come on stage, by the clear signal that market regard as delivers the stock market to drop, meanwhile, people begins to associate building city also can get saving, the author thinks, whether should be building city saved must drop from house price above all reasonable undertake adj.

Is much Gao Cai of house price level reasonable? This is the core problem of estate market, involve the numerous interest principal part such as business of the person that buy a house, development, government, bank.

Organize the level that raise according to world bank and U.N. person house, the price buying a house of a family is in its family year the 3~6 of income times for reasonable range. If take its to be restricted high, with Beijing is urban and rural 2007 per capita 24683 yuan, 3 members calculate every family, the reasonable defray buying a house of a family is 444294 yuan. A 3 home, if be calculated according to 90 square metre, house price is every square metre 4937 yuan. Current, the commodity house price of 5 annulus less than of Beijing is in 10 thousand yuan basically / square metre above. Calculate accordingly, house price reachs a household year 12 times of income. Otherwise of a family eats not to drink 12 years to just can buy one flatlet.

The person that “ inflection point talks ” thinks, this house price supports for a long time hard undoubtedly. One word profundity depicted ” of “ Fang Nu numerous the anguish that the person that buy a house offers a room, at the same time still a lot of buy the resident that housing wants to do and cannot become ” of “ Fang Nu feebly. If be compared according to house price and domestic income,be equal to 6 times for reasonable level, beijing house price should drop at least 50% , just can achieve “ reasonable ” level.

But be in China this planned economy to market economy shunt, at the same time from agricultural society the country to shunt of society of industrialized, informatization, afore-mentioned standards that rely on U.N. only are to have break biased. Issue of house price rationality studies in China, still need to consider the following factor:

It is recessive income problem. Chinese national condition decided a lot of income do not have law statistic. These recessive income are the main component of dweller income, but in statistical data was not brought into in statistic of all previous government. The average levels of 2 abroad of savings ratio prep above that are a Chinese. Dweller savings ratio of China is as high as 40% above, for one of nations with top whole world. This means the circumstance in coequal income to fall, chinese dweller can be used and be willing to be used at buying the fund of the building, want average level of prep above world. 3 it is a Chinese the strong demand to having a house oneself. Because home is very at present much legal laws and regulations and policy, the dweller does not have his building, can bring very big inconvenience. For instance the dweller cannot fall his registered permanent residence in the building that he leases, this meeting is brought a series of problem, for instance filial registered permanent residence reachs education to wait in the future. Because of this Chinese often would rather other place is saved a bit, the money that comes out with the province buys a house at an early date.
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